Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

Vice President for Macroeconomic Research

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

I lead the macroeconomic research group at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, where I advise the Bank President on monetary policy for FOMC meetings. My research focuses on labor market dynamics using search and matching models, with publications in leading journals.

Research Interests

Macroeconomic labor markets, search and matching models, unemployment dynamics, job vacancies, wage determination, business cycle fluctuations, product market frictions, credit market frictions, monetary policy implications

Recent Work

Line chart of the monthly layoff rate from 1978 to 2026 showing little trend, with the prime-age series near 1% in expansions and a JOLTS overlay from 2000

Economic Note 2026-03

How Unusual Is Today’s Low-Fire Labor Market?

A household-survey layoff series reaching back to 1978 shows today’s low layoff rate is close to what prior strong expansions produced.

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics January 2026

Latest Publication

From Deviations to Shortfalls

The effects of the FOMC’s new employment objective: a shortfalls rule raises average inflation by 90 basis points and reduces the likelihood of a binding zero lower bound.

Labor Market Insights

What is the Beveridge Curve?

The inverse relationship between unemployment and job vacancies broke down after the pandemic—then returned to normal. This animation builds the concept from scratch.

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