Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

Vice President for Macroeconomic Research

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

I lead the macroeconomic research group at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, where I advise the Bank President on monetary policy for FOMC meetings. My research focuses on labor market dynamics using search and matching models, with publications in leading journals.

Research Interests

Macroeconomic labor markets, search and matching models, unemployment dynamics, job vacancies, wage determination, business cycle fluctuations, product market frictions, credit market frictions, monetary policy implications

Recent Work

Line chart of the labor force participation rate, 1990 to 2026, comparing the actual rate falling from about 67% to 62% with a counterfactual that holds the year-2000 age mix fixed and stays near 67%

Economic Note 2026-06

What the Overall Participation Rate Hides

The participation rate has fallen about 5 points since 2000, but an aggregate rate blends behavior with the age make-up of the population. Holding the year-2000 age mix fixed, participation barely moves: aging accounts for about 4.7 of the 5 point decline.

FRBSF Working Paper 2026-14 2026

New Working Paper

Do Vibes Predict Recessions?

Soft data on beliefs, sentiment, and narratives predict recessions more responsively than hard data, catching more downturns at the cost of more false alarms; combining the two improves forecasts.

Labor Market Insights

What is the Beveridge Curve?

The inverse relationship between unemployment and job vacancies broke down after the pandemic—then returned to normal. This animation builds the concept from scratch.

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