Recent job growth averaging around 20k per month looks soft. But is it?
Timely analysis by Dallas and San Francisco Fed economists shows break-even employment—the job growth needed to keep unemployment stable—peaked at 250k monthly in 2023, fell to 10k by mid-2025, and to near zero by year-end.
The reason: Net outflows of unauthorized immigrants averaging -55k per month combined with declining labor force participation. What this means: The benchmark moved. Payroll gains that would have signaled economic slack just two years ago are now consistent with a balanced labor market.