Workers who change jobs usually see faster wage growth than those who stay put. In the middle of 2025 that premium vanished, something that had happened before only in the slack labor markets of 2003–2004 and 2009–2010, in data going back to 1997.

Line chart of the twelve-month moving average of median wage growth from January 2022 to September 2026 for job switchers (thick teal line), job stayers (salmon) and all workers (grey). Switchers peak at 7.7 percent in late 2022 and early 2023, stayers at 5.7 percent. The lines converge in mid-2025 near 4.3 percent, break in October 2025 when the survey was not collected, then separate: switchers hold at 4.4 percent through 2026 while stayers fall to 3.5 percent, with the gap between them shaded.

It has reopened this year. On the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, median wage growth for job switchers (teal) came down from a peak of 7.7% in early 2023 to 4.2% at the end of 2025 and has held at 4.3 to 4.4% every month since, while raises for stayers (salmon) kept slowing, from 3.9% to 3.5%. The premium, 0.9 percentage point in September, is a little above its 2015–2019 average.

The series are the Atlanta Fed’s own 12-month moving averages, and the break in the lines is October 2025, when the survey was not collected. The download carries the full history from 1997.