People in their twenties have long moved from outside the labor market into a job more frequently than workers in mid-career. That is changing, and the gap is the narrowest in three decades of data.

Job finding, ages 21–30 relative to ages 35–54

Line chart from 1996 to 2026 showing how much more likely people aged 21 to 30 who are out of the labor force are to start a job within a month than people aged 35 to 54 (teal line, 12-month average). The edge moved between about 45 and 70 percent before the pandemic and averaged 56 percent in 2015-19 (gray line); it was still near 56 percent in 2022 and fell to 31 percent by August 2026, the lowest since the mid-1990s.

Percent more likely to start a job: the monthly chance of moving from out of the labor force into a job, 12-month average, ages 21 to 30 relative to ages 35 to 54. Gray line: 2015–2019 average. Shaded areas: recessions. Source: Current Population Survey microdata and author’s calculations.

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The teal line follows people out of the labor force (neither working nor looking, as many students and new graduates are) and their chance of starting a job in a given month. In 2022, as before the pandemic, a 21-to-30-year-old in that position was about 56% more likely to make the move than a 35-to-54-year-old. By August 2026 the difference was down to 31%, as young adults’ monthly rate slipped from about 12% to 10% while experienced workers’ remained unchanged.

This is one more signal that the first step into a career has become harder.